Steady Conservatives Lead Liberals in Canada
Posted on 31 August 2008 by Jack
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Conservative party is leading Canada’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons, while 28 per cent would support the Liberal party.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 18 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with eight per cent.
Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.
The next federal election in Canada is scheduled for October 2009, but there is growing speculation that a snap ballot would take place on Oct. 14.
Popularity: 15% [?]
August 31st, 2008 at 10:57 am
Now this is more reflective of what I’m hearing in my neck of the woods!!
August 31st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
It looks like a different story without the second choice building up liberal numbers . It still beats the hell out of me why ANYBODY would vote libera but apart from a 4 point lead in Ontario the liberals are toast.
August 31st, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Great news! The only thing better would be an announcement that Step. (backwards) Deyawn has resigned and moved back to France, being a french citizen.
August 31st, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Now how did Nik Nanos get such dramatically different figures???
August 31st, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Peter: “Now how did Nik Nanos get such dramatically different figures???”
By asking a double question to the effect: If there was an federal election today, who would you vote for locally, ranking your two top choices from either the conservatives, liberals, NDP or Green parties?
My bet is that the numbers are actually even higher for the conservatives (than the 36%). But, time will tell.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
No Sandy, they’re betting that we all grew up with an education that included a steady diet of fuzzy math. You know the kind where 10 + 10 = 25.
Numbers mess with people’s heads and the polls are doing exactly that. Few question the story behind the numbers OR their accuracy.
I’m sure pollsters count on that…..so do the political parties.
August 31st, 2008 at 11:59 pm
“Now how did Nik Nanos get such dramatically different figures???”
It seems that the Angus Reid poll was done online while the Nanos poll was the “telepest” call. Having participated in both forms of polling, I have more faith in the accuracy of the online version as you can more easily read / understand the question(s). Telephone polls often have what seems like very stupid or confusing questions, especially when the caller isn’t fluent in either of our 2 official languages. The blatant minor rephrasing of questions by telepests can be annoying (I know, it serves as a check on previous answers, blah blah blah.)
Just my opinion, but I feel that those that participate in online polls do so voluntarily and for the most part do so with honest intentions. Telephone polls in my opinion can often be skewed by those that just say whatever because the poll is dragging on too long (have you ever had a caller tell you about 5 mins and 20+ minutes later you are still going??). Combined with the Nanos “pick-two” style question recently, I have no faith in what they say…….it runs contrary to everything I ever learned about statistics, probability, etc. And the defense that their polls have been accurate for (whatever) proves nothing to me …….. that could be coincidence. Simply because your methods were close to the actual results in the last 2 or 3 elections could be blind luck or chance, and do not necessarily validate the methodology.