With the prospect of a spring election not completely eliminated, today’s CROP poll in LaPresse contains food for thought for all of the major federal political parties.

For the Conservatives, Foreign Affairs Minister’s Maxime Bernier’s gaffe on Afghanistan and television images of police and Elections Canada officials executing a search warrant at Conservative Party Headquarters don’t seemed to have had much impact in La Belle Province, where 75 House of Commons seats will be up for grabs the next time we go to the polls. The good news for the Conservatives is that they not only rival the Bloc Québécois in popularity across the province among francophones, they are far ahead in the Quebec City region and are starting to show strength among the soccer mom and minivan crowd in the suburbs north and south of Montreal. Confidence in the government is down but Prime Minister Stephen Harper is still considered the best choice for prime minister.

If an election were held this spring, the Conservative caucus could find itself with a lot more Quebec MPs. 

For Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, the news is bleak.

Not only does the NDP continue its inexorable rise in Quebec, it is now more popular than the Liberals among francophones. While the Liberals continue to be the most popular with non-francophones and on the island of Montreal, they are so low in Quebec City and in the regions that many candidates could be lucky to get the 10 per cent you need to get election expenses reimbursed. With Stephen Harper and Jack Layton (two anglophones) more popular among francophone Quebecers than their native son and the party at 13 per cent among francophones, don’t be surprised to see another bout of turmoil in the party’s Quebec wing.

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Update:  9:15 pm and I’m gone.

Goodnight.

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