Jack: Albertans voted with their feet!
Posted on 04 March 2008 by Jack
I linked to a CBC story this morning but I want to come back to it for a minute if I may. If you didn’t read it right to the bottom you missed the most important part:
Despite an apparent appetite for change, voters in Alberta stuck with tried-and-true blue, giving the Progressive Conservative party an unprecedented 11th consecutive majority government in Monday night’s provincial election.
The Tories, who began their political dynasty in 1971, captured 72 of 83 seats, gaining 11 seats and increasing their share of the popular vote by about six per cent from the last vote in 2004.
[…]
Worst turnout in Alberta history (very bottom of the article)
Various polls showed anywhere from 20 to 45 per cent of voters were undecided during a campaign that saw few sparks.
Voter turnout dropped even further from a dismal 44.7 per cent in the 2004 campaign to about 41 per cent on Monday night, the worst turnout in Alberta history, according to preliminary numbers.
[…]
Shane Edwards looks at the matter from his perspective:
After all the media hullabaloo about the “massive” undecided vote, and the potential for a minority government arising in Alberta, we get what - another PC landslide.
After all the media talking about how Albertans think Ed Stelmach is a maroon, we have what - the most uniform PC support across the province that I have ever seen.
So much for the media. One more case, I suppose, of how much the media wants to manipulate public opinion these days. We know what the chattering class wanted - the death of conservatism in its heartland.
Sorry, boys. Didn’t happen.
[…]
Alas, much back patting and happy faces all around BUT Shane is wrong I think regarding media influence (the rest is pretty much on target). The media did manipulate the election by convincing everyone it was a “done deal”. 59% of voters sat it out much like they did in the recent Ontario election.
Time will tell how well “Happy Ed” will make out but I predict a lot of bitching and moaning in the years to come from the very same crowd that couldn’t bother to get off their duff long enough to send him a message.
Point: Ed didn’t win this election — he stole it. Just like “McShifty”.
And just like Ontario, Alberta is now in a fix if I have it right.
“Welcome to the club, people!”
Popularity: 33% [?]
March 4th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
I see implications for the federal election whenever it comes. Those dissatisfied with ‘all of the above’ stay home. I wonder how many liberals voters will exercise this option next time we have a federal election. This translates well for Harper. All of those unmoveable liberal voters will be unmotivated to hold their nose and vote for Dion. Cheers.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I’m worried about the same thing, Sandra. Everyone is becoming so “turned off” by media reports on our politics they are walking away in droves. It’s been happening for years.
How we turn it around I don’t know but I’m open to suggestions.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
I guess you and I read different articles in the runup. The majority of pieces I ran across were calling for “major changes” and a good chance of a minority government. They also talked about the huge undecided element that could swing the vote in a number of ways.
When a huge undecided settles on the status quo, that tells me the papers and media who touted alternatives to the PC party, were shown that Alberta was nowhere near the place where they wanted to believe they were.
Now, I suppose the low voter turnout could have been that 25% of normally voting people simply refusing to decide and instead opt out. That left the decided voters to decide the ballot in a substantively PC way. In any case, I think the biggest theme of this election is the failure of the other parties to portray a convincing alternative to the status quo.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Not sure about your analysis Jack. Being an ex-Albertan and having all my immediate family living in Calgary, I took an interest in the election. My impression is that “Albertans” are too busy working to be totally engaged in the election - as an example all my kids phoned me yesterday to find out where they were to vote!! Like I’m on Vancouver Island.
Elections Alberta was a zoo to get on and then find polling stations. I checked at least 3 party web sites who all referred me to Elections Alberta or gave no clue as to what ridings were which and where the polling stations were. Like put in a postal code and give back an address.
Rod Love (King Ralphs right hand man) predicted on CTV at 8:17 mountain time that it would be a PC victory and then checking the other channels that I have access to you couldn’t find any coverage. The MSM in the rest of Canada seemed to have no interest. Where was CPAC who did the Ontario election and even PEI election? On National News Watch web site today there is hardly a peep. My take is that the rest of Canada really doesn’t care about the province that currently supports most of the country with it’s transfer payments so why should Albertans care! They did vote for stable middle of the road government and now it’s back to work.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
My problem with what happened is the lack of voter participation and therefore my comment. During the election I was watching for news on the Wildrose Party but hardly a peep.
Much the same could be said for the other parties. It was PC or bust as far as the media was concerned. Lazy journalism in my mind.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Aren’t people concerned that under PCs the NEP (II) will be a distinct possibility? And the Wildrose Party would divert this at all costs and rightly so? Majority of Albertans in 1982 lost their shirts off their back, but the new crowd wouldn’t have much memory of that recession — many do. Any gov’t that reduces taxation (as with BUDGET 08) is the gov’t that will glean wide support. The Liberals have no history of that over decades, though they are replete with broken promises. Each region must find its niche in economic terms and promote it for its citizens. For instance, McGuinty has no other choice than to heed Minister Flaherty’s admonitions TO LOWER CORPORATE TAXATION. And Alberta seemingly centre left left must catch on faster, too. If a gov’t isn’t citizen-based in is business, it’s not doing the job of government. To that end, I think there’d be wide agreement.
March 4th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Anna: “Aren’t people concerned that under PCs the NEP (II) will be a distinct possibility?”
Actually, the PCs were in power during the first NEP, so I doubt they’ll implement another one. The Liberal platform, with it’s carbon tax, looked suspiciously familiar, and much scarier than raising royalties that were ridiculously low to start with. Kevin Taft, the leader, makes Ignatieff look humble.
The Wildrose Alliance Party wasn’t ready, and you could tell by the number of university students that were running. Gimme a break, could they graduate first? Their leader has even less charisma than Stelmach.
NDP - right, like any sane Albertan wants to give them the keys to the vault.
There was no viable alternative (I did vote for the college student as a protest vote - he was running in the NDP leader’s riding which he seems to hang onto quite handily).
As for Alberta’s spending, I get tired of reminding people that NO SPENDING WAS DONE FOR A DECADE WHILE THE DEFICIT WAS PAID OFF. So while Ontario, BC, Quebec etc were spending as always, Alberta was not. There’s a huge infrastructure deficit that needs to be addressed so all those Ontario families with autistic children can continue to move here for the better services, etc. And spending when you have no deficit is not always a bad thing - isn’t one of the core conservative principles not to buy something unless you can afford it?
March 4th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Jack- dissatisfaction works to the CPC favour. BC, Alta and Sask will all vote Conservative as will many more in Quebec. All of those liberals upset with Dion will stay home, as the PC’s did in the Ontario election giving McGuinty a majority. If those liberals in Ontario stay home rather than voting for Dion then Harper has a good chance at his majority.
I am not saying that this is good for democracy but just the reality.
I agree that Albertan’s are too busy making money and by not voting they basically say they are happy with the status quo. All the MSM pontificating was just wishful thinking. There was no way the Liberals were going anywhere in Alberta.
What easterners should be worried about is all of those from eastern and central Canada that move to the west and see that conservative governments get things done.
I believe that there is a great myth in the east that, because the government does’t provide services from cradle to grave that we do without. We don’t. Those sevices are all provided by non-profit and church organizations, often at a higher calibre than if the government was providing them. Cheers.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
As an Albertan all I can say is that Conservative supporters donate to charity, serve as volunteers to help others and, oh yes, vote as a matter of duty.
I can’t speak for others, but I suspect while they are happy to answer with their preferences to pollsters questions, they don’t seem to have the same commitment when it comes time to spend 30 minutes every four years to trot down to the polling station on election day.
Long may this situation last.
BTW, I would suggest Mr. Stelmach did not steal the election. Rather he won it fair and square because people who are otherwise dis-inclined to vote Conservatives did nothing. The Conservatives on the other hand were able to increase their popular vote from 418,000 in 2004 to 500,000 in 2008.
I fail to see how Mr. Stelmach’s victory is in any way comparable to Mr. McGuinty’s in Ontario. What I do see is that Western Canada continues to be a haven of common sense and financial rectitude that the rest of the country can be thankful for.
March 4th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Depends on where you sit. Looking at it from Ontario I see little difference. 59% of voters didn’t bother to get off their butts in yesterday’s election. We are far to complacent about our democracy. That has to change.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Thanks Candace and following posters. You’ve fleshed out the local realities. Albertans have been the backbone of this country for a very long time now. It’s the rising costs that pose a threat to the social fabric if you will. The pressures are too great on young families and any measures that can be applied against those pressures can only move this remarkable region ahead. Same for the ROC. Canada’s newly adopted taxation policies are increasingly being seen as a huge help.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Sitting at a poll as a scrutineer for over 8 hours, I watched the voters as the came and went. Of the 470 voters, only 2 had any hesitation on who to vote for. Most were in and out of the voting booth in less than a minute. One thing that did bother me is that the majority of voters just handed their ballot back and did not wait to see if it was put in the ballot box.
This could be confusing as the poll clerks were handing out ballots as voter just handed them back.
Best thing that happened is when a high school teacher brought her entire grade 12 class to vote.
March 4th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I found it difficult to find the results last night until I got them online at Bourque’s site. Made my day that more Conservatives voted in this election than last election and that the Conservatives swept the province, knocking two Dippers of their Socialist perches and putting 9 Liebrals out of work. Now that’s a GOOD THING!!!
Glad to see that Steady Eddy got the vote and happy as a clam that the banner of Conservatism marches on. Now if only Toronto could pull their heads out of their collective socialist butts, things would be even better.
Not that I really even have an opinion. lol
Happy, happy, joy, joy
Pat
March 4th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Great first-hand report, Mary. Did you get to count the ballots in those boxes? Who did? And how long did it take?
As Candace advised, nobody was going to hand the keys to the vault to the NDP. LOL. Bankers they are not. They’re not a lot of other items either.
Pat - you’re funny. You bring such “clarity” to Canadian affairs. Sure, everybody will ignore your well formed opinion. LOL.
March 4th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
I had to force myself to go vote . I voted for the alliance wildrose fella. I knew he didn’t have a hope in hell of winning but I voted for him mostly because Stelmach moved so far to the left that I think a lot of liberals and ndp didn’t see any point in voting for their respective parties.
March 4th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
I feel that it’s fine to vote for whomever you want but at least do it. We have two recent examples of what happens when people sit on their butts.
I’m beginning to arrive at the conclusion that we should copy Australia and make it law that people do this thing. It’s not democracy to sit back and let someone else make the decisions (or maybe it is).
Truth be told I’m uncertain but I do know this. If you want to lose your country and your way of life there is no faster way I know of than taking it for granted and that’s exactly what I’m seeing.
March 5th, 2008 at 1:15 am
“What easterners should be worried about is all of those from eastern and central Canada that move to the west and see that conservative governments get things done.”
ROFLMAO! Excellent point.
March 5th, 2008 at 5:20 am
Ed may have “won” the election, but 60% of eligible voters didn’t even show up! At what point do we reject the claim of a “majority” and a real mandate to govern?
Land sales for drilling leases are abysmal so far this year with Sask & BC out doing Alberta, but not to the level that they are replacing what Alberta is not doing. If licences to drill are down, how much of the Royalty hikes end up in government coffers? 20% of nothing is still nothing. I say cash flow from reduced drilling & land sales will impact this government’s ability to maintain its current spending levels. Cuts to spending or tax hikes, take your pick.
Some rigs are heading for the US for lack of work here. I’m finishing up my last well this week and there is no work on the horizon for the next four to six months even taking into consideration spring breakup. I did two short wells from May to October last year vs 9 the previous summer 2006 and saw a 30% reduction of available work over this last winter into this spring. Grande Prairie is the hub for NE Alberta and BC and the place is dead with a lot of hurting service hands. The reduction in work will impact federal cash flow as well, as GST and taxes will be quite a bit lower this year and more so in 2009. Lots of used F-250 & F-350 trucks for sale plus all the “toys” like quads & snow machines. $100 oil means nothing as most drilling is for natural gas. Even at today’s price of $9.48, we will need some global cooling and some colder winter weather to drive prices up to offset what the Alberta government takes in new gas well royalties. The big companies are sitting on piles of cash while juniors are barely staying afloat. Expect lots of M & A activity to replace drilling during 2008-2009. I think gas prices will have to go to $12-$14 before anyone gets excited about drilling and at those prices foreign LNG will be cheaper to purchase than drill here, but you will still be paying $12-$14 on your gas bill. In effect, Eddy’s royalty hikes will drive gas prices up and Canadian oil patch jobs offshore. That won’t keep Ontario vehicle manufacturers employed supplying new trucks to anyone out here.
March 5th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Mary, I am curious about the teacher bringing her “entire” class to vote.I know that is not possible as most kids are still 17 when they graduate and I thought the voting age was 18. Were they there observing or to actually vote and how many used fake I.D. to vote? I know my grandson had a fake I.D. when he was 16 so he could sneak into the bars with his buddies. I would also like to know if these kids were already pre-instructed on whom to vote for.
March 5th, 2008 at 9:27 am
albertans also look at the federal government and don’t like what they see. The liberals who never cared for our country nor the safety and security of our land was seen right here in alberta. why do you think the liberal seat was reduce to one or two and the ndp two seats especially when edmonton is mostly libs and ndp.
Albertans have worked too hard to be taken away by a liberal government that does nothing but steal and manipulates the innocent people of canada.
I live in alberta and i listen to lowell Green at CFRA580, he was a liberal but for years a conservative. listening to him from 8-10am alberta time via the net, is a pleasure; at least i know we are not alone fighting for the sanity and our country.
The liberals in my opinion has hit rock bottom. their only survival is the MSM.
Stelmach has warned mcguinty that alberta’s oil is alberta’s does not belong to canada even though we support canada.
Alberatans work the longest hours than any province Quebec and toronto the least. and yet they have the nerve to question albertans.
March 5th, 2008 at 11:07 am
RE class coming to vote. This is a class made up of students from vaious areas. This teacher does this every election, municipal, federal, provincial. The class come in, those not 18 of course did not vote. They were taken to a map on the wall, where they found out where they would vote.
They were given a lesson on how to get a ballot, produce ID etc.
No mention was made of party or candidates.
3 could vote at this poll. Others had to wait to get home and get their parents out to the proper poll in another town..
They were surprised one could not just vote anywhere.
It was great to see the interest shown by these kids, and their intent to use their right to vote when they could.
She then took them all out for donuts and pop.
If the election was next month, many more could have voted.
I will say that several of her previous students did come to vote.